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A Decade of Oil Prices: The Rise & Fall – January 1999 to December 2008

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Posted by: Karl Ramjohn

Following on the earlier (and ongoing) discussions on the the price of oil over the past few years, here is an interesting summary and analysis by Prof. Chris Rhodes of the trends in the price of oil over the past 10 years.

–> Energy Balance: A Recent History of Oil Prices.

In January 1999 the price of a barrel of oil reached a low point of $16 when Iraq increased its oil production at the time of the Asian Financial Crisis when demand for oil fell. Prices then increased rapidly, reaching $35 in September 2000, and after a temporary fall reached $40-50 by September 2004. Crude oil prices surged to a record high above $60 in June 2005, and by early August 2005 hit $65 as consumer demand was maintained. In September 2007, the price of US crude oil broke the $80 barrier. In October 2007 a barrel of US light crude oil exceeded $90 for the first time, due to a combination of tensions in eastern Turkey and a fall in the value of the US dollar. The next psychological watershed of $100 was briefly breached in early 2008, but the price fell again until the end of February after which it remained and rose well above this new setting. Then a visible ramping effect became evident and so the price exceeded $110 on March 12, 2008; $125 on May 9, 2008; $130 on May 21, 2008, $140 on June 26, 2008 and $145 on July 3, 2008. The record was reached on July 3, 2008 at $147.27 as a consequence of geopolitical tensions over Iranian missile tests.

The above data stress the point that the price of oil is highly sensitive to the world political situation and to a general sense of confidence, including that in the stock markets. When the $147 barrel appeared, it did appear there would be no stopping the escalating price of oil, and that by December 2008 a barrel of oil might cost around $150 or more, amid speculation that by the end of 2009, it would be nearer $200. However, oil prices declined by more than $20 over the next two weeks in July 2008, and seemed to stabilise at near $125 a barrel on July 24, 2008. A forcing factor came into play, which was that the very high price of oil had changed people’s behaviour and they were now driving less with a reduced demand for oil. Oil prices then dipped further, reaching $112 a barrel, on August 11, 2008.

On September 15 the $100 psychological barrier was again broken, but in reverse, when the price fell below $100 for the first time in seven months. On October 11 there occurred a massive crash in the value of global equities, with a barrel of oil falling by 10% to $77.70. In consequence of further economic slowdown the price continued to slide and today (December 4, 2008 ) it is trading at around $45 a barrel. Rather than the $200 predicted last summer some analysts are now predicting a $20 barrel sometime during 2009. I must stress, however, that even if this does happen it will be a short-lived event, because the facts of geological limits to production, increased production costs to obtain more difficultly recovered oil and that demand is still rising (demand is simply rising less steeply during this economic recession, but it is still in the ascendant).

…continues…

 


Recent News on Energy and the Environment 05.12.08

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Poznan Climate Change Conference, December 2008: News & Developments

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Posted by: Karl Ramjohn

UN FCCC post-Kyoto climate conference Poznan, Poland — opening press briefing by Yvo De Boer:

 

 

Further videos related to Poznan developments —> YouTube – climateconference’s Channel

 

Other news / articles related to Poznan conference:

 

Poznan Climate Conference: Latest News and Global Perspectives – SustainabilityForum.Com

 

Indigenous People Demand Voice in Poznan Climate Talks

Earthquake Northwest of Trinidad, Nov.28.2008

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Posted by: Karl Ramjohn

From: Seismic Research Centre, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad & Tobago

Source: Earthquake northwest of Trinidad

On Friday, 28th November at 12:18a.m. local time, an earthquake occurred north of the Paria Peninsula near Trinidad.

The preliminary location for the event is 10.84°N 62.23°W.

The earthquake was of magnitude 4.0 and the focal depth was 84km.

Please note that these results are preliminary and may vary slightly when additional data is processed.

Sustainable Energy (Video)

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Posted by: Karl Ramjohn

Sustainable Energy

This might not add much to the debate and discussion on “Sustainable Energy”, but it has a somewhat different presentation format: 

More videos on sustainable energy, climate and related: Geo Energy Network Media

Recent News on Energy and the Environment 28.11.08

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Written by geoenergy

November 28, 2008 at 8:52 pm

Modelling civilization as “heat engine” could improve climate predictions

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Posted by: Karl Ramjohn

An interesting article from Environmental Research Web  (November 27, 2008)  on a possible conceptual approach to modelling human activities (and the built environment) and how they interact with climate systems (and the natural environment).

—>  Modelling civilization as ‘heat engine’ could improve climate predictions – environmentalresearchweb

The extremely complex process of projecting future emissions of carbon dioxide could be simplified dramatically by modelling civilization as a heat engine. That is the conclusion of an atmospheric physicist in the US, who has shown that changes in global population and standard of living correlate to variations in energy efficiency. This discovery halves the number of variables needed to make emissions forecasts and therefore should considerably improve climate predictions, he claims. 

Computer models used to predict how the Earth’s climate will change over the next century take as their input projections of future manmade emissions of carbon dioxide. These projections rely on the evolution of four variables: population; standard of living; energy productivity (or efficiency); and the “carbonization” of energy sources. When multiplied together, these tell us how much carbon dioxide will be produced at a given point in the future for a certain global population. However, the ranges of values for each of the four variables combined leads to an extremely broad spectrum of carbon dioxide-emission scenarios, which is a major source of uncertainty in climate models. 

Timothy Garrett of the University of Utah in the US believes that much of this uncertainty can be eliminated by considering humanity as if it were a heat engine (arXiv:0811.1855). Garrett’s model heat engine consists of an entity and its environment, with the two separated by a step in potential energy that enables energy to be transferred between the two. Some fraction of this transferred energy is converted into work, with the rest released beyond the environment in the form of waste heat, as required by the second law of thermodynamics.

However, the work is not done on some external task, such as moving a piston, but instead goes back to boosting the potential across the boundary separating the entity from the environment. In this way, says Garrett, the boundary “bootstraps” itself so that it can get progressively bigger and bigger, resulting in higher and higher levels of energy consumption by the entity.

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